RADIO
The greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf is always among the more iconic routings we visit on an annual basis, but in recent years, the lack of elite headliners and an insistence on highlighting the "Am" portion of the AT&T Pro-Am has made this event little more to golf fans than a minor hurdle to clear before the real business is settled in Scottsdale and Riviera.
That all changes in 2024, however, as Pebble Beach's new "Signature Event" status brings with it a guaranteed prize pool of $20 million and a collection of talent we haven't seen since last year's Playoffs ready to battle it out around these iconic links. This new no-cut format we'll be seeing at the Signature Events this year also comes with a change to the traditional Pebble Beach course rotation. Instead of the AmEx-style 3-course cycle with a 54-hole cut, the 2024 AT&T Pro-Am will be split between two of Monterey County's iconic tracks. Similar to last week, players will spend their opening two rounds traveling between two different courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill), before tackling two weekend rounds at the venue that gives this event its name. The three rounds at Pebble Beach don't just mean increased exposure to the legendary views off of the Monterey Peninsula, but also an extra layer of predictability for golf bettors; as Pebble Beach remains the only course within the rotation with Shotlink compatibility and historic Strokes Gained data to draw from.
Before we get into the star-studded odds board on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to set you up to make those crucial decisions before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Pebble Beach Golf Links and the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
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The Golf Course(s)
Pebble Beach Golf Links - Par 72; 6,972 yards
Spyglass Hill - Par 72; 7,041 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Justin Rose (-18) over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu
- 2022 - Tom Hoge (-19) over Jordan Spieth
- 2021 - Daniel Berger (-18) over Maverick McNealy
- 2020 - Nick Taylor (-19) over Kevin Streelman
- 2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19) over Paul Casey
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 41.2 yards; 4th widest on the PGA Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 69.5%; 5th highest on Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 272.0 yards; Lowest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.33; 14th lowest on Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: -0.024; 9th toughest on Tour
Despite sitting just a few hundred miles up the California coastline, you won't find a more drastically different tee-to-green test to Torrey Pines than Pebble Beach. Coming in nearly 800 yards shorter than the 7,800-yard behemoth players faced last week, Pebble Beach's 6,972-yard routing ranks as the shortest Par 72 we see on the PGA Tour.
This lack of length will allow players much more freedom in their club choices off of the tee; with 7/10 Par 4s here measuring at 420 yards or less, driver is only a necessity on 5-6 shots in a given round. This deemphasis on driving prowess is further emphasized by some of the most forgiving landing areas on the PGA schedule. At over 41 yards wide on average, only Augusta National, Kapalua, and El Cardonal can boast more generous fairways -- keeping in mind that the shortest of those venues (El Cardonal), still measures in at over 7,400 yards.
When you combine the generosity of these fairways, along with the multitude of club-down opportunities available to these players, it's no wonder that the past champions list here in recent years hasn't exactly skewed towards elite drivers of the ball. In fact, three of the last seven champions here at the AT&T did so whilst losing strokes off the tee around Pebble Beach, and in that time, only Daniel Berger (2021), ranked inside the top 10 for the week in Total Driving.
It's not often that driving rates out as the least predictive of the four Strokes Gained metrics on the PGA Tour, but Pebble Beach has perhaps the best case to devalue any and all off-the-tee metrics in your modeling. If anything, I'll be placing a small value on accuracy-based stats like Good Drive %, as the everpresent threat of the Pacific Ocean gives Pebble Beach an above-average penalty fraction of 5%, but as long as you're not sniping your tee ball dead into the sea, there isn't a lot that should worry the best players in the world on the tee box.
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 65.2%; 16th highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: -0.042; 6th toughest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 100-125 yards (has accounted for 22.1% of historical approach shots)
- 125-150 yards (15.9%)
- 200+ yards (21.4%)
If you're looking to have a good time this weekend (and potentially your stomach pumped), take a drink every time you hear this little factoid on the CBS Broadcast:
"Pebble Beach features the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour."
They are indeed -- and although the greens here aren't the most interesting from a topographical standpoint, the 3,500 sq. foot complexes (on average), are regarded as the greatest architectural defense this course possesses.
Surprisingly though, these notoriously small targets haven't always translated to lower Green in Regulation rates, as the field average here at the AT&T Pro-Am has exceeded the Tour Average of 65% on four of the last five occasions.
Much of this has to do with the approach yardages players can expect to have into many of these holes. Even with the lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour, over one-third of historic approach shots at Pebble Beach have come from inside of 125 yards, and another 15% have come from 125-150.
The abundance of wedge shots players project to have into these greens, combined with the inflated rate at which they can expect to play from the fairways, means elite wedge players will have ample opportunities to fire at flag sticks with near impunity.
Wedge play is certainly a skill I'll be isolating for in my modeling, as Top 5 finishers here at Pebble Beach have gained an average of 1.55 strokes per round on approach (37% of their total strokes), and eight of the last ten champions here have entered the week inside the top 20 in at least one of my aforementioned proximity ranges.
It's also worth noting that over 20% of approach shots have historically come from 200 yards and beyond at Pebble Beach. While this fraction does stand out from a raw numbers standpoint, 21.4% still sits well below the PGA Tour average distribution of approaches coming from beyond 200 yards (27%), and many of the long-irons players project to be hitting into these greens will be coming on Pebble's four reachable par 5s. As a result, I'll be using Par 5 scoring as an indirect stand-in for long-iron proximities, while continuing to focus most of my attention on general iron metrics, as well as the previously specified stats from <150 yards.
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 56.6%; 0.9% below Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.020); 11th toughest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.026; 8th easiest on Tour
With winning scores hovering comfortably in the 17 to 19-under range over the last eight seasons, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am isn't typically an event that falls into the category of a scrambling/Bogey Avoidance fest. Since 2012, Top 10 finishers here have gained just 1/3 of their strokes around the greens relative to approach play and putting. But in that time, we've also seen a noticeable absence of Pebble's second built-in defense: heavy, sustained winds.
Herein lies the potential wild card of this week's handicap, as current projections from WindFinder indicate the possibility of sustained 15-20 mph winds all day Friday, and gusts of up to 45 mph late Sunday afternoon.
If players are forced to brave these gale-force conditions, Pebble Beach may turn into an entirely different beast to the wedge-intensive birdie party I've outlined to this point. With margins this small, even the slightest amount of uncertainty regarding club or start line could result in a missed green, and a potential step in the wrong direction.
For this reason, it is imperative to monitor the wind projections as tournament week progresses. In sustained winds of 20+ mph, I'd have no problem weighing short game equally to the other key stats I've previously outlined. Four days out, it's difficult to make any concrete assessments on how conditions will shape up, but I am putting a tentative strike through anyone without at least some semblance of historic wind proficiency/scrambling acumen.
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size -- 3,500 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Poa Annua
- Stimpmeter: 10.5
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.8%
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: -0.017; 4th toughest on Tour
We've spent a great portion of this piece outlining the stark contrasts between these two California landmarks, but one constant that remains from last week's assessment of Torrey Pines is the presence of Poa Annua greens. In fact, Torrey is one of only three courses on the PGA Tour in which it's harder to gain strokes putting compared to Pebble Beach, and the only course with a lower make percentage from 5-15 feet.
While the damper conditions up in Monterey typically make the greens at Pebble Beach a bit slower and more receptive compared to its SoCal counterparts, it doesn't take away from the overall difficulty in navigating this unique agronomy. Since 2015, Pebble Beach has never ranked easier than the 6th toughest course on Tour to putt inside 5 feet, and features a 3-putt percentage right in line with the Tour average despite possessing the smallest green complexes on Tour.
Projecting putting performance is always one of the trickier exploits in our weekly handicap, but oftentimes, past performance on poa annua is among the more reliable indicators of future success on this surface. Each of the last seven winners here had at least a singular recent spike week on these surfaces -- if not a consistent increase in their overall baseline.
- Rose +6.2 SG: Putting (2019 U.S. Open)
- Hoge +4.8 SG: Putting (2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
- Berger: +1.8 and +2.6 SG: Putting in his two prior starts at the AT&T Pro-Am
- N. Taylor: Gained strokes putting in 10 of his previous 13 starts at Pebble/Torrey/Riviera
- Mickelson: Gained strokes putting in six of his previous seven starts at Pebble leading into his 2019 win
- Potter Jr: +6.8 SG: Putting (2013 Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
- Spieth: Gained strokes putting in each of his last two Pebble Beach starts leading into his 2017 win
With as big a factor as putting projects to play in this week's outcome, I intend to be extremely selective when assessing a player's viability on this surface. If he hasn't proven capable of performing on comparable green complexes within the last few seasons, this is not a week I intend to bet on a sudden change of heart.
Key Stats Roundup:
- SG: Approach -- particular emphasis on proximity/strokes gained splits from <150 yards
- Birdie Opportunities Gained
- Birdie or Better Rates <150 yards
- Positive history putting on West Coast Poa Annua surfaces
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Around the Greens (weight largely dependent on upcoming wind forecasts)
- Off-the-tee stats will be largely deemphasized compared to a normal week. Slight weight given to Driving Accuracy/Good Drive %
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The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are 2-3 names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Max Homa
A fantastic tee shot by Max Homa to set up birdie on the 186-yard par-3 16th at Torrey South. 🎯
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @FarmersInsOpen pic.twitter.com/A1rjSOD66x
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 24, 2024
Although the headlines surrounding this event will revolve around the many marquee first-timers teeing it up at Pebble Beach, my initial leans in this star-studded field are centered around a few of the more familiar names to the AT&T Pro-Am audience.
Spieth, Cantlay, and Jason Day are all very much in consideration (depending on price), but my favorite of the California ringers is the same man I led off with last week: Max Homa. Max hasn't competed here at Pebble Beach in two seasons, but in a three-start stretch from 2019-2021, Homa recorded finishes of 7th, 10th, and 14th -- gaining a combined 6.4 strokes on the greens in seven cumulative rounds. Despite his frustrating struggles inside of 10 feet at Torrey Pines last week, Max was still able to gain 1.7 strokes putting in three rounds, and now he arrives at a venue that should be better suited for his ball-striking profile.
Although Max can count himself as one of the best all-around iron players on the PGA Tour, it is from inside 150 yards that he creates the most separation among his peers. Dating back to last January, Max rates out 12th and 7th in my key proximity ranges (50-125; 125-150), and he's the only one in this stratosphere who also possesses a reliable track record on poa annua surfaces.
It says a lot about Max's overall progression that he can put together a 13th-place finish around Torrey Pines despite a pretty languid performance in two of his main statistical strengths. He still hasn't finished worse than 14th in eight worldwide starts, and until we leave California, he won't be far from consideration on any of my betting cards. Given this recent run of form, I don't expect Max to drift too far down the board, but in a field featuring 14 of the 15 best players on the planet (per OWGR), I'm still holding out hope for a number bordering on 25-1.
Adam Scott
Making his first stateside start of the 2024 campaign, Adam Scott might be in the midst of one of the more underreported heaters in the golfing world. The veteran Australian has recorded finishes of 5th, 6th, 4th, and 7th over his last four starts -- three of which came against some of the best fields the DP World Tour has to offer, and one of which came on another windswept, wedge-intensive venue in Bermuda.
Scott started the New Year by gaining 7.5 strokes between his driving and iron play at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, while also ranking 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. This elite all-around performance is a great omen for Adam's ambitions to get back into the winner's circle, especially when you consider the Aussie's history here in the Golden State.
Over the last five seasons, Scott has racked up a win, a runner-up, and three additional top 10s on fellow California poa annua courses: Torrey Pines and Riviera, while recording a 7th place finish at the 2019 U.S. Open right here at Pebble Beach. In that time, Scott rates out as the fifth-best poa putter in this field (gaining nearly a full shot per round), and since the start of 2023, he ranks third on Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage from <125 yards. (32.04%).
Although Scott's skillset has proven it can travel to any venue around the world, he's found his most immediate stateside success on shorter, wedge-intensive venues (5th in Bermuda, 7th at Wyndham, 19th at Travelers). With the momentum he's currently carrying into this season, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him pick off one of these early-season marquee events just as he did in L.A. four years ago. Anything in the 60-1 range would make for a great price to target at open.
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